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best betting line ever [Nov. 14th, 2009|12:45 am]
From bookmaker.com

48701 EARTH WILL BE HIT BY AN ASTEROID OR METEOR
48702 AS A RESULT OF A NUCLEAR WAR
48703 A PLANET WILL COLLIDE WITH OR PASS BY EARTH
48704 EARTH WILL BE SWALLOWED BY A BLACK HOLE
48705 EARTH’S POLAR CAPS WILL MAKE A SUDDEN SHIFT
48706 THE SUN WILL GIVE OFF SOLAR FLARES
48707 IT’S NOTHING, JUST THE MAYAN CALENDARS RESETTING I

Clearly Black Hole is +EV, I'm sure the payout system will be functional on the other side. Sadly the $100 limit will hurt my profit potential on this one.
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My first month of parenting - some outtakes [Sep. 28th, 2009|08:32 am]
1 minute old, I think she liked it better on the inside




Somehow this proved that she can hear



After we came home we needed some entertainment for her, but the bouncer ....well she'll have to grow into it



However we had to work out some kinks with the swing also



I may need to go back to babycare 101 for proper burping technique but her neck IS supported



Who knew poop could have such velocity, and who's idea was it to make a bassinet "wall" out of mesh?



I thought this stroller was supposed to be newborn ready?



She didn't like the hospital hats.....


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CFA Level III results day [Aug. 18th, 2009|07:06 am]

joe G pelton

Level 3: Pass

The table below illustrates your subject matter strengths and weaknesses.   The three columns on the right are marked with asterisks to indicate your performance on each question or topic area.

Essay
Q#TopicMax Pts<=50%51%-70%>70%
1Portfolio Management - Individual26--*
2Portfolio Management - Individual9*--
3Portfolio Management - Institutional24-*-
4Portfolio Management - Institutional11--*
5Economics19--*
6Portfolio Management - Asset Allocation10--*
7Equity Investments17--*
8Alternative Investments15-*-
9Portfolio Management - Risk Management16-*-
10Portfolio Management - Monitor&Rebalance15--*
11Portfolio Management – Performance Eval.18--*


Item Set
Q#TopicMax Pts<=50%51%-70%>70%
-Derivatives18--*
-Economics18-*-
-Equity Investments36-*-
-Ethical & Professional Standards36--*
-Fixed Income Investments36--*
-Portfolio Management18--*
-Portfolio Management - Individual18--*

By far my best result, given the limited information they show you.  I guess the moral of the story is use the schwesser books
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FYI - failures in identify theft? [Aug. 9th, 2009|11:16 pm]
just in case this guy ever asks someone for money or something....

I don't have a facebook account.  This came to my attention today and is not me.  I'm quite surprised I rate as impostor worthy


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The Staircase [Jul. 29th, 2009|11:19 pm]
David Cross mentioned this documentary on the adam carolla podcast awhile back.  It has 8 - 45 minute episodes, i got disc 1 yesterday from netflix and watched all 4 45 minute episodes, and would have watched the rest if i had disc 2

Its badly in need on a better editor to trim the fat but its a fascinating work nonetheless, if you watch episode 1 and aren't hooked watch just the first minute of episode 2 OR 3 and you will be
 
Its not as clear cut as say Paradise Lost but its a good watch.  I have no idea how it'll turn out and i doubt i'll feel confident in the verdict either way

-----------------------------------------

I ended up going to the library today to get disc 2 as netflix had a delay on it.....saying anything would be a spoiler, it still needs better editing, but i still highly recommend it

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Poker day on CNBC [Jul. 18th, 2009|12:48 am]


Steven Begleiter, One of the november nine....he's on tv because of tha...oh er rather because he's an ex bear stearns employee. Looks like a guy you'd dream of having at your table, but probably he's pretty good at the poker. He makes a solid point near the end that many poker players would have gone to wall st i-banking in a past time

Bizarre note, they show a stat of winner payouts from 05-09 the source....playwinningpoker.com Remember that when/if you hear the wsop pr staff complain that the players are at fault for not promoting things as they did last year






Jeffrey Pollack, Da commish on fast money. Best quote "i think that poker is truly a global game, its americas game" wait....... timeout, which is it?

2nd best quote "10 of our events were sellouts"

The truth is the number of events where they reached the true capacity they could handle was at most 2: the 1k NL and the 10k heads up, everything else had an artificial cap or in the main event an avoidable cap

They ask him for a metric on how the wsop affects things in vegas and he says "I haven't seen the hard data but there definitely was a buzz"

None of these are meant that pollack is a bad commish/ceo, its meant that everything said by a ceo on tv should be considered to be bs

pollack should be considered a bad commish/CEO because he never mentioned to watch for the november 9 or anything that might encourage someone to come play next year
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Unbelievably great moments in delusion [Jul. 13th, 2009|07:54 am]




Their is lots of info you can google about lenny dykstra (self alledged) financial guru. This blog has a lot of good stuff about it. Basically he got tons of press for running a martingale style options newsletter and was celebrated as a genuis. He paid 17 million for a house near the top of the market (with no money down) and then he started an athletes only magazine and didn't pay anyone who worked for him, so you could see how those things might end poorly

This interview starts strong with lenny mocking his mortgage brokers stutter so you'll hate him quickly even if you don't know any of the backstory
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Out near the bubble [Jul. 11th, 2009|01:54 pm]
I played 3 hands today

Open with JJ won blinds

A guy pushed for 77k I had ako in the bb and called he had jj

J in the door then I turn a flush draw but miss despite 2 ks on board

the big stack to my right was raising most hands as he should and playing wildly he opens I have KK and move in for 74 more so he was getting about 104 to 74 and called with ajo and ace on the flop was the end
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Stayin alive [Jul. 11th, 2009|01:12 am]
I'm through to day 4 with 177500

I had an incredible start getting over 210k in no time with barely a showdown

I got moved early in level 2 and somehow that table never lost a player the rest of the day. It was a pretty interesting table but really no weak spots and plenty of people who would 3 bet light

Ayways its late I'm on blue 20 tomorrow if someone can comment the draw again that would be great
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Through to day 3 [Jul. 9th, 2009|01:25 am]
I have 69700 going to day 3 of the main event. Well below avg but plenty of chips for the blinds

We are off thursday and back noon friday

if anyone sees the table draw please comment i'm on orange 82
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Main event day 1d [Jul. 7th, 2009|12:26 pm]
Apparently my twitter feed didn't work last night

I have 56225 going into day 2b on wednesday, my table was pretty great all day, we had no really bad players just a bit overtight and calling stationy. I played a ton of hands and made the nuts once per level

I fully supported the decision to shut people out as it had to be done at some point to change behavior....however they handled it horribly and now I'm worried everyone will lose out on registration choice as a result

Follow me on wednesday at twitter.com/joepelton

I should explain my last twitter, my table last night was in the brazillia room which has about 90 tables. At the end of the night the give a bag to every player with a new table for the next day. This needs to be random over all 300 tables. Instead everyone drew a table in the brasilia room . If the draw was random the odds of that happening are about 1 in 20,000. Instead its clear we only had bags for the brasilia room
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The main event is heading for trouble [Jul. 3rd, 2009|11:22 pm]
For those that don't know the WSOP main event the last few years has allowed people to pick which of the multiple day 1s they wish to play.

Last year this lead to a massively skewed distribution of:


a:1297 (thursday)
b:1158 (friday - july 4th)
c:1928 (saturday)
d:2461 (sunday)

of the 4389 that started on days c-d, 2379 survived the  5,  2 hour, levels to play on day 2b, that works out to about 55% of the field, way outsurviving a-b which were around 51%.  Days 1d and 2b were stretched to the limit needing 273 and 264 tables respectively, i don't know the actual capacity but i believe they had to use the buzios tables and/or the main poker room last year

This year they have changed things and players will start with 50% more chips, obviously this means more people will survive day 1, what adjustments have been made you ask? For dubious reasons the staff shortened day 1a to only 4 levels and 73% of the field survived yesterdays day 1a.   Day 1b MUST play only 4 levels, day 1c and 1d should play only 4 levels to match but will likely be forced to play more to fit the day 2b field in.  And if c-d play 5 levels i still expect problems.  They have to figure this out by the end of day 1c and make them play the 5th level

At this point there are only 3 outcomes:
1) the field shrinks so badly that only 5500 or so total play and major size issues don't materialize
2) day 1d sells out and people are turned away from the main event
3) day 2b requires multiple start times

I expect 3 to be the case and they did at least build in an off day after day 2b that can handle this, but its so easily avoidable! How could anyone make a decision to remove a level on day 1a? any day shortening could easily be done on 2a when all the facts are in, in a worst case scenario they would have something like 1000 people on 2a and 2500 on 2b, so they play till about 500 are left on 2a and thus 1200-1500 would be left on 2b and you go from there, now they are looking at 1500 and 3000+ for 2a 2b

The future solution is  tough (but many options exist)  because they really need 4 starting days but if you don't live in vegas (or reside there during the series) its insane to pick 1a as you are stuck with 3 off days in a row and  5 of 6 days not playing if you make it to day 3.  If I was in charge I would set day 1d as the 4th of july no matter how the calendar rolls so that at least there is some muting on the most popular day, it would be bad if they went back to a random draw because we all know the names can pull strings and get the day they want.  they could also just allow around 1650 (around 150 tables) to choose and then force people to pick another day after that.  Another option is to set it so days a-b are on the weekend which is obviously more popular

Many of the problems they run into are caused by giving negative incentive to people who sign up early for any event at any  point in time.  That is an easily fixed  policy but since the players association gets all the perks of the current policy it probably won't change


I've always picked the last day 1 to play and did again this year even though i expected 2b to be a mess hopefully i'll be wrong, and more importantly hopefully i'll still be around to care.

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(no subject) [Jun. 29th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:35 Table has: James mackey, dave plastik and van russo at table, stupid medium buyin fields plus table won't break did win 3k right away though #
  • 12:45 Lost first stack KK to set of 444 on 974 2 spade flop, might have folded without addon bailout #
  • 14:04 4k on break, getting outplayed and not liking my chances #
  • 14:07 Last hand a guy calls 1600 pre with about 1100 behind, flop jxx raiser allin guy flashes a j and folds, he also has both addon chips still #
  • 15:13 Won qq vs ak allin pre,then chopped a big pot aq vs aq vs kk on qqx flop 13k #
  • 15:26 Really stupid to have the addon end after 3 levels if it inserts another br #
  • 16:38 Brandon cantu now on my left with a shiny gold bracelet, table is death now 11k #
  • 17:25 100/200/25 raiser to 700 call 3rd guy makes it 2700 cantu calls allin for 2500 with QhJh can't decide if that's smart or not ..he lost to AA #
  • 18:40 Out called down a guy who had lost like 50k the hand before AA vs KK with TT on #
  • 18:41 Q and bunch of low cards board, when I called he looked sad then I did #
  • 19:28 Already 2330 for tomorrows 1500 buyin soon #
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(no subject) [Jun. 28th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:07 Calling today a sellout, but last night buzios tables were setup, today gone? #
  • 13:16 Out, made a horrible call with 2 pair vs a rivered set for most, very sad when I am back to my room before housekeeping #
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(no subject) [Jun. 18th, 2009|03:04 am]
  • 12:56 table draw looks great according to pokernews no names I recognize and only one stack bigger than mine #
  • 14:10 kudos to floor staff we started at 2 on the dot, only guy that covers me isn't here #
  • 15:07 in the money, no headphones is torture about avg with 47k #
  • 15:36 lost chunk in blinds couldn't pull the trigger on kamikazee 4th pair raise 30k #
  • 16:13 43k break 160ish left #
  • 17:08 3 bet shoved TT guy to my left folds jacks he says 47k falling behind avg #
  • 17:38 somehow my entire table is well below avg 40k with 120 left #
  • 18:14 called shove of same stack size with ak JJ folds behind and I push with ak, then TT get called behind and raised on A flop down to 25k 10bbs #
  • 18:33 33k diinner, getting away with murder on the button is keeping me alive #
  • 20:08 27200 at the unscheduled break for the stanley cup? 9 bbs 88 left #
  • 20:15 tournament is stopped but cash games continue....this is lame since we (or they) are going to have to go till 3am #
  • 21:07 doubled up.....to 40k q4 vs a3 hit 4 on river, 6 people left from my original table we've been allin like 25 times combined, still 10bbs #
  • 21:20 guy opens 10k I shove from sb for 33300 more with aq he calls with kq 377KK 74th place #
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(no subject) [Jun. 17th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:21 consensus at the table is that breaks are every 3 hours...., also bb just folded out of turn, demidovs gf 2 to my left she is good I think #
  • 12:49 almost full double to 8500 sadly table breaks #
  • 13:46 lost half stack kj vs jt on kqx rainbow, got all in pre ak vs aq but choped, aq shove might have saved me from a 3rd player though #
  • 14:49 Busted new player aa vs ak 11k on the break, 3 people at new table were impressed when chris ferguson walked by... I love the 1500 events #
  • 16:27 jesus joins table...won with AA again then tried a zonkers bluff on jesus that I would like back, down to 4k #
  • 17:43 won 77 vs aq all in pre.....bled back down and hit 11 outer on river vs slow played kk gods want me to miss my flight home, 11k now #
  • 18:49 8850 dinner #
  • 21:40 picking up some hands up to 25k #
  • 22:17 29k last break didn't we used to play more levels? #
  • 23:20 button blind vs super nice older guy kj vs qq for 18k pot board 8879T ......33k #
  • 00:50 Busted short stack ak vs 33 ...somehow got a walk on the last hand 42500 244 left 216 pay #
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(no subject) [Jun. 16th, 2009|03:04 am]
  • 12:23 table is very serious, no one I recognize though, girl to my left says she got 28th or so in the last 1500 nl #
  • 12:26 open ako get raised and reraised, I fold? A7o jams and loses to qq, devilfish takes last seat #
  • 13:08 flopped top set vs nut flush got it in on blank turn no luck on the river #
  • 00:03 saw pellham 123, solidly mediocre, but very amused that the dow "plunges" to 12000 and gold goes up 890%! In one day, nice fact checking #
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my WSOP day 2 [Jun. 15th, 2009|01:44 pm]
I bled down to 4k from starting stack of 6k by opening with AQ and AK several times and never pairing or making it to the river, or trying a serious bluff

last hand of the 25/50 level, I limp UTG with 77 , guy makes it 225, devilfish calls in sb and bb calls, and i call closing action

Flop is 7d5d2d, checks around (i should have bet the raiser was aggressive but not an idiot)
Turn 8x, devilfish bets 800, bb calls.

So there is 2500 in the pot and i have 4000 in my stack at this moment, whats the plan?

i decided to just go all in the raiser and the fish folded but the bb insta called with AdTd and the river was a 6

There was a sort of weird conversation.... to my left was a very chatty girl to her left was a stoic dude and to his left was empty at this point

Girl: Hey, how about you move over a bit and give yourself some leg room
Guy: I'm, good

Girl: Oh....well i was really trying to get myself some room here (laughs)

Guy: Oh I know exactly what you were trying to do  (dead serious no hint of laughter or friendliness)

Girl: Huh....well as long as your good then? ..... I guess....

Guy: .........


somehow despite this impressive display of rudeness she kept trying to chat with the guy for the entire time i was there, apparently thats how bad of an option it is to try and get me to talk.


 


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(no subject) [Jun. 15th, 2009|03:03 am]

  • 23:58 checked out venetian and caesars but didn't play, saw "the hangover", very highly recommended even if the director once busted me from a 10k #

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my wsop day 1 [Jun. 13th, 2009|05:45 pm]
My tables today were great, i didn't do much at the first table (which featured 3 iowans and a one armed man) and we broke early

My new table looked fine also, the first hand at 25/50 a guy opens for 250 and i have QQ....could go either way but i call, and another guy calls

Flop TcT3c raiser bets 250 i call other guy folds
Turn Kc check, i check
River T check i bet 500 and he calls and mucks, that guy turned out to be crazily tight so i won the max i think

A bit later i over limped on the button with J9s at 75/150 it was like 4-5 ways
Flop comes QcTc8c checks to me i bet 500 and get 2 calls
Turn Tx
checks to me I bet 1000 a blind thinks forever but folds a limper then makes it 2025 more having me covered by a bit and I call with about 3k behind
River 5 he checks and i check and beat his T9o no club (nice overcall on the flop btw)
I would have crying called a non club river shove

My crippling hand was interesting.

I should have a tight image but who knows, 100/200/25 i open with AdJd in early position and get 3 calls including the bb

Flop J47 with 2 hearts, i bet 1700 a very active older guy calls (same guy with T9o hand) with about 2500 behind, fold and the bb thinks a long time and moves in for 7000 more, i had 7375 left at this point

The bb had 3 bet shoved preflop with some middling pair earlier for a hefty overbet so it wasn't like he has to have me beat here and the other guy was totally committed and i felt i was definitely ahead of him, the only problem with calling would be if they had like 56o and AhQh where i'm dodging every draw

The pot was 7825 so i'm getting over 2:1 + the other guys money that is probable....i hate it but i think i have to make that call, so i do the other guy call calls with Ah9h and the bb looked sad with Jh5h

but of course 5 ball on the turn ship him the 25k pot,

I was UTG next hand with less than 2 big blinds and put it in with Qh8h, and somehow beat KQo

so next hand my BB a player limps in mid position i have AsTs in the bb and 1k more, so i move in he insta calls with QJo and wins. 

I really do love these $1500 tournaments, sadly I think the 1k event is taking a bit out of the field sizes since this one used to sell out and wasn't close this year but 2638 is plenty of money

Nothing at the rio i want to play tomorrow so i'll probably go to the venentian and see how many they get for the 1500 "deep stack" back at the wsop for the 2k on monday
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