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The main event is heading for trouble [Jul. 3rd, 2009|11:22 pm]
For those that don't know the WSOP main event the last few years has allowed people to pick which of the multiple day 1s they wish to play.

Last year this lead to a massively skewed distribution of:


a:1297 (thursday)
b:1158 (friday - july 4th)
c:1928 (saturday)
d:2461 (sunday)

of the 4389 that started on days c-d, 2379 survived the  5,  2 hour, levels to play on day 2b, that works out to about 55% of the field, way outsurviving a-b which were around 51%.  Days 1d and 2b were stretched to the limit needing 273 and 264 tables respectively, i don't know the actual capacity but i believe they had to use the buzios tables and/or the main poker room last year

This year they have changed things and players will start with 50% more chips, obviously this means more people will survive day 1, what adjustments have been made you ask? For dubious reasons the staff shortened day 1a to only 4 levels and 73% of the field survived yesterdays day 1a.   Day 1b MUST play only 4 levels, day 1c and 1d should play only 4 levels to match but will likely be forced to play more to fit the day 2b field in.  And if c-d play 5 levels i still expect problems.  They have to figure this out by the end of day 1c and make them play the 5th level

At this point there are only 3 outcomes:
1) the field shrinks so badly that only 5500 or so total play and major size issues don't materialize
2) day 1d sells out and people are turned away from the main event
3) day 2b requires multiple start times

I expect 3 to be the case and they did at least build in an off day after day 2b that can handle this, but its so easily avoidable! How could anyone make a decision to remove a level on day 1a? any day shortening could easily be done on 2a when all the facts are in, in a worst case scenario they would have something like 1000 people on 2a and 2500 on 2b, so they play till about 500 are left on 2a and thus 1200-1500 would be left on 2b and you go from there, now they are looking at 1500 and 3000+ for 2a 2b

The future solution is  tough (but many options exist)  because they really need 4 starting days but if you don't live in vegas (or reside there during the series) its insane to pick 1a as you are stuck with 3 off days in a row and  5 of 6 days not playing if you make it to day 3.  If I was in charge I would set day 1d as the 4th of july no matter how the calendar rolls so that at least there is some muting on the most popular day, it would be bad if they went back to a random draw because we all know the names can pull strings and get the day they want.  they could also just allow around 1650 (around 150 tables) to choose and then force people to pick another day after that.  Another option is to set it so days a-b are on the weekend which is obviously more popular

Many of the problems they run into are caused by giving negative incentive to people who sign up early for any event at any  point in time.  That is an easily fixed  policy but since the players association gets all the perks of the current policy it probably won't change


I've always picked the last day 1 to play and did again this year even though i expected 2b to be a mess hopefully i'll be wrong, and more importantly hopefully i'll still be around to care.

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(no subject) [Jun. 29th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:35 Table has: James mackey, dave plastik and van russo at table, stupid medium buyin fields plus table won't break did win 3k right away though #
  • 12:45 Lost first stack KK to set of 444 on 974 2 spade flop, might have folded without addon bailout #
  • 14:04 4k on break, getting outplayed and not liking my chances #
  • 14:07 Last hand a guy calls 1600 pre with about 1100 behind, flop jxx raiser allin guy flashes a j and folds, he also has both addon chips still #
  • 15:13 Won qq vs ak allin pre,then chopped a big pot aq vs aq vs kk on qqx flop 13k #
  • 15:26 Really stupid to have the addon end after 3 levels if it inserts another br #
  • 16:38 Brandon cantu now on my left with a shiny gold bracelet, table is death now 11k #
  • 17:25 100/200/25 raiser to 700 call 3rd guy makes it 2700 cantu calls allin for 2500 with QhJh can't decide if that's smart or not ..he lost to AA #
  • 18:40 Out called down a guy who had lost like 50k the hand before AA vs KK with TT on #
  • 18:41 Q and bunch of low cards board, when I called he looked sad then I did #
  • 19:28 Already 2330 for tomorrows 1500 buyin soon #
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(no subject) [Jun. 28th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:07 Calling today a sellout, but last night buzios tables were setup, today gone? #
  • 13:16 Out, made a horrible call with 2 pair vs a rivered set for most, very sad when I am back to my room before housekeeping #
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(no subject) [Jun. 18th, 2009|03:04 am]
  • 12:56 table draw looks great according to pokernews no names I recognize and only one stack bigger than mine #
  • 14:10 kudos to floor staff we started at 2 on the dot, only guy that covers me isn't here #
  • 15:07 in the money, no headphones is torture about avg with 47k #
  • 15:36 lost chunk in blinds couldn't pull the trigger on kamikazee 4th pair raise 30k #
  • 16:13 43k break 160ish left #
  • 17:08 3 bet shoved TT guy to my left folds jacks he says 47k falling behind avg #
  • 17:38 somehow my entire table is well below avg 40k with 120 left #
  • 18:14 called shove of same stack size with ak JJ folds behind and I push with ak, then TT get called behind and raised on A flop down to 25k 10bbs #
  • 18:33 33k diinner, getting away with murder on the button is keeping me alive #
  • 20:08 27200 at the unscheduled break for the stanley cup? 9 bbs 88 left #
  • 20:15 tournament is stopped but cash games continue....this is lame since we (or they) are going to have to go till 3am #
  • 21:07 doubled up.....to 40k q4 vs a3 hit 4 on river, 6 people left from my original table we've been allin like 25 times combined, still 10bbs #
  • 21:20 guy opens 10k I shove from sb for 33300 more with aq he calls with kq 377KK 74th place #
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(no subject) [Jun. 17th, 2009|03:03 am]
  • 12:21 consensus at the table is that breaks are every 3 hours...., also bb just folded out of turn, demidovs gf 2 to my left she is good I think #
  • 12:49 almost full double to 8500 sadly table breaks #
  • 13:46 lost half stack kj vs jt on kqx rainbow, got all in pre ak vs aq but choped, aq shove might have saved me from a 3rd player though #
  • 14:49 Busted new player aa vs ak 11k on the break, 3 people at new table were impressed when chris ferguson walked by... I love the 1500 events #
  • 16:27 jesus joins table...won with AA again then tried a zonkers bluff on jesus that I would like back, down to 4k #
  • 17:43 won 77 vs aq all in pre.....bled back down and hit 11 outer on river vs slow played kk gods want me to miss my flight home, 11k now #
  • 18:49 8850 dinner #
  • 21:40 picking up some hands up to 25k #
  • 22:17 29k last break didn't we used to play more levels? #
  • 23:20 button blind vs super nice older guy kj vs qq for 18k pot board 8879T ......33k #
  • 00:50 Busted short stack ak vs 33 ...somehow got a walk on the last hand 42500 244 left 216 pay #
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(no subject) [Jun. 16th, 2009|03:04 am]
  • 12:23 table is very serious, no one I recognize though, girl to my left says she got 28th or so in the last 1500 nl #
  • 12:26 open ako get raised and reraised, I fold? A7o jams and loses to qq, devilfish takes last seat #
  • 13:08 flopped top set vs nut flush got it in on blank turn no luck on the river #
  • 00:03 saw pellham 123, solidly mediocre, but very amused that the dow "plunges" to 12000 and gold goes up 890%! In one day, nice fact checking #
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my WSOP day 2 [Jun. 15th, 2009|01:44 pm]
I bled down to 4k from starting stack of 6k by opening with AQ and AK several times and never pairing or making it to the river, or trying a serious bluff

last hand of the 25/50 level, I limp UTG with 77 , guy makes it 225, devilfish calls in sb and bb calls, and i call closing action

Flop is 7d5d2d, checks around (i should have bet the raiser was aggressive but not an idiot)
Turn 8x, devilfish bets 800, bb calls.

So there is 2500 in the pot and i have 4000 in my stack at this moment, whats the plan?

i decided to just go all in the raiser and the fish folded but the bb insta called with AdTd and the river was a 6

There was a sort of weird conversation.... to my left was a very chatty girl to her left was a stoic dude and to his left was empty at this point

Girl: Hey, how about you move over a bit and give yourself some leg room
Guy: I'm, good

Girl: Oh....well i was really trying to get myself some room here (laughs)

Guy: Oh I know exactly what you were trying to do  (dead serious no hint of laughter or friendliness)

Girl: Huh....well as long as your good then? ..... I guess....

Guy: .........


somehow despite this impressive display of rudeness she kept trying to chat with the guy for the entire time i was there, apparently thats how bad of an option it is to try and get me to talk.


 


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(no subject) [Jun. 15th, 2009|03:03 am]

  • 23:58 checked out venetian and caesars but didn't play, saw "the hangover", very highly recommended even if the director once busted me from a 10k #

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my wsop day 1 [Jun. 13th, 2009|05:45 pm]
My tables today were great, i didn't do much at the first table (which featured 3 iowans and a one armed man) and we broke early

My new table looked fine also, the first hand at 25/50 a guy opens for 250 and i have QQ....could go either way but i call, and another guy calls

Flop TcT3c raiser bets 250 i call other guy folds
Turn Kc check, i check
River T check i bet 500 and he calls and mucks, that guy turned out to be crazily tight so i won the max i think

A bit later i over limped on the button with J9s at 75/150 it was like 4-5 ways
Flop comes QcTc8c checks to me i bet 500 and get 2 calls
Turn Tx
checks to me I bet 1000 a blind thinks forever but folds a limper then makes it 2025 more having me covered by a bit and I call with about 3k behind
River 5 he checks and i check and beat his T9o no club (nice overcall on the flop btw)
I would have crying called a non club river shove

My crippling hand was interesting.

I should have a tight image but who knows, 100/200/25 i open with AdJd in early position and get 3 calls including the bb

Flop J47 with 2 hearts, i bet 1700 a very active older guy calls (same guy with T9o hand) with about 2500 behind, fold and the bb thinks a long time and moves in for 7000 more, i had 7375 left at this point

The bb had 3 bet shoved preflop with some middling pair earlier for a hefty overbet so it wasn't like he has to have me beat here and the other guy was totally committed and i felt i was definitely ahead of him, the only problem with calling would be if they had like 56o and AhQh where i'm dodging every draw

The pot was 7825 so i'm getting over 2:1 + the other guys money that is probable....i hate it but i think i have to make that call, so i do the other guy call calls with Ah9h and the bb looked sad with Jh5h

but of course 5 ball on the turn ship him the 25k pot,

I was UTG next hand with less than 2 big blinds and put it in with Qh8h, and somehow beat KQo

so next hand my BB a player limps in mid position i have AsTs in the bb and 1k more, so i move in he insta calls with QJo and wins. 

I really do love these $1500 tournaments, sadly I think the 1k event is taking a bit out of the field sizes since this one used to sell out and wasn't close this year but 2638 is plenty of money

Nothing at the rio i want to play tomorrow so i'll probably go to the venentian and see how many they get for the 1500 "deep stack" back at the wsop for the 2k on monday
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Players can unregister after a wsop event has started? [Jun. 5th, 2009|01:08 pm]
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-blogs/34-lee-watkinson/entries/6604-someone-left-the-door-wide-open-at-the-wsop

What the heck? This is a horrific idea, another obvious exploitation of this is to register early check out your table from afar, then get a refund if its bad wait 5 minutes and re-register.  Repeat as necessary. There is no rule against re-registering for a tournament after getting a refund and I have done it in a wierd case last year.

For the main event you could do this over multiple days and scout the table each day for an hour to decide if you want to play them or not, this is an insane policy if true.
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Pokernews hand of the day [Jun. 1st, 2009|07:51 am]

"Ladies and gentlemen, he'll probably be appearing here until Tuesday.

JC Tran was mistakenly told earlier that yesterday's chip leader finished on 130,000 chips. At the time, he was still located in the Brasilla room and sitting on less than 50,000. He looked around his table and said something along the lines of, "How am I going to reach that here, they need to break my table."

It wasn't too long after that Tran was moved to the Amazon room. And now, as we near the end of play, he has a stack not far off of 120,000! He's made a damned good effort of making the fictional target.

The last hand witnessed which he was involved in saw him call an early position raise of 2,200 while sitting on the button. The flop came {A-Diamonds} {10-Hearts} {3-Spades} and Tran called a 2,200 bet. Both players checked the {10-Hearts} turn and {3-Diamonds} river before Tran took the pot with {9-Clubs} {7-Clubs}."

JC is one of the best players, playing in the softest field on earth and now he's able to win pots by floating with total air AND checking it down and playing the board?

In other news the guy that won the Omaha/8 event also won it last year and got 2nd in 2007 that is amazing. Too bad for him Omaha/8 ranks just below chess , scrabble,  and watching someone do their taxes as things people would watch on espn
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Another avoidable wsop disaster beckons [May. 29th, 2009|11:31 pm]
Last year the wsop did the first ever 2 starting day event, i forget the exact details but it was something like

Day 1 - 12pm till 2am
Day 2 - 2pm till 7am
Day 3 - 1pm till 5 am with a break but tv interviews mixed in

This required players making monumental life changing decisions to do so on little sleep at best.

This year they've lowered the buyin and increased the field from 3929 to somewhere north of 5000, the stacking stack will be the same since this year has triple buyin chips and the structure is actually improved.

So have they adjusted the days of play? HA!

This is the type of easily avoidable issue that for some reason poker tournament directors and especially the WSOP never manage to avoid.   If the schedule doesn't change, i can't even figure out how it could possibly be done in the timeline they expect. 

I actually think that someone will wake up and make it a 4 day event (4 days of play 5 days total), but who knows.  The reason for hope is that its not an ESPN televised event this year, though it is on espn360.com
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World Series of Twitter? [May. 27th, 2009|11:50 pm]
At every break at the wsop since moving to the rio the race has always been to the bathrooms, this year that race will most likely be slowed by everyone twittering their chip counts.  Poker news sites will soon be cutting staff and just aggregating twitter pages before long.

It was about 2 months ago that twitter, from my point of view, suddenly exploded. For some reason tv shows like PTI and CNBC were consistently wasting airtime trying to drive people to a site they didn't own

I said at the time that poker tournament updates were a great use of the medium.  I planned on making a more eloquent post about it which terrence recently did better than I ever would have.

However in the meantime i've found that there is more usefulness out of twitter than I realized.  There are countless creative people on it who for some reason give away content and ideas for free. The one I keep scratching my head over is bill simmons of espn.com. He is paid to write articles for espn yet he posts a lot on twitter which clearly detracts from his espn content yet somehow this is allowed, i really don't get it.

saying things like "i don't care what you had for breakfast or if you are at starbucks" is fast becoming the "all bloggers live in their parents' basement" argument that was once funny but quickly showed you don't care to understand the potential

Sure there are lots of really vain people on twitter, luckily there is no law that requires you to ever see anything these people write, you can pick and choose who you follow just like on livejournal or blogspot

anyways the gist of the story is I'm part of the borg now twitter.com/joepelton.  I'll be posting updates from the wsop and I might even keep using it after that for movie reviews and links or whatever

Due to the CFA level III test I won't be playing any poker until the 13th and due to mean reversion I can't possibly make another final table this year, but who knows.

My one quick prediction is the 40k event tomorrow has a higher total than people are expecting (over 250 maybe over 300) due to being one of the few tv coverages, but the total amount of money at risk due to swaps and sponsorships will be like 30% of the pool and the future events will be under past years but not by a lot.  The main event will easily exceed last years total.

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Wait that wasn't already a rule? [May. 22nd, 2009|08:14 pm]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30892424

"SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro unveiled new rules that would prohibit employees from trading stocks of companies that are under investigation by the agency. The rule pertains even if the SEC employees are not personally involved in the investigation."

People who work for the SEC should not be allowed to own individual stocks I don't think that is really too tough to agree on?


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Logic vs CEOs [May. 20th, 2009|01:02 pm]
From Trip Hawkins founder of EA, graduate of Harvard and an MBA from Stanford, regarding his company digital chocolate:

"We're pleased to announce today that we are now the #1 game company on the iphone based on having had 20 million downloads of our games...and since apple recently announced that they've sold about 30 million iphones uh that shows you that the majority of iphone owners have probly played one of our games"

CNBC host : "we can do the math there"

I don't own an iphone and i've downloaded many of their games so I am really messing up his data....As usual the viewers rather than doing the math are left to wonder if the CEO is dumb enough to believe what he just said or is just trying to deceive people. 





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ignoring the signs [May. 17th, 2009|08:43 pm]
Chain of events:

I'm having a good run of luck in the FTOPS main event and have an above average stack a bit into the money.

I am dealt pocket aces and raise
a guy with a lot of chips calls behind me
someone is tanking in the blinds when....

An freaking earthquake hits (5.0 centered ~40 miles away) (Sign #1) One of the bigger ones i've felt in my years here

Flop comes 678 with 2 clubs
I bet
He raises (sign #2)

I ignore these ominous signs and ship it in,  he calls with 666

I found a local news station that is discussing the earthquake, i know way more about it then they do (magnitude and location)....good job as usual la news.





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An add so good I learned to embed for it [May. 12th, 2009|04:53 pm]
Only worth it if you played mike tyson's punch out though
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celeb apprentice - "live" er ....tivo blog [May. 11th, 2009|12:06 am]
i watched nothing of this show until the last half of the finale tonight. My mom loves the show and loves that a poker player was on it. i told her recently (in less nice words) that Annie Duke is not one of my favorite people so i wasn't interested, but my mom said that she wasn't coming across well on the show.  Also i had heard somewhere a long time ago that Annie and Joan rivers were heads up so watching didn't seem interesting

At first hearing annie made the final 2  was shocking but after looking back at the cast and thinking about it, annie is perfect for this show, she'd get voted out on survivor in no time (by contrast Jean Robert Bellande would suck on both shows) but as long as the decision isn't made by her "teamates" she's in good shape

Shockingly Phil Hellmuth was able to attend her fundraiser and get his face in multiple shots on a highly rated? network tv show, i know i know he loves his kids so much how ever did he tear himself away???

Annie duke knows poker players, poker players have lots of disposable income, this is obvious and when i first saw the contest was a fund raiser i thought well that's clearly in Annie's wheelhouse.  But think about it, she's "playing" against Joan Rivers, Joan presumably knows lots of actors entertainers etc and more older people who have been accumulating wealth for a long time, which group do you think has a higher total, median, avg net worth?

However rafe furst bidding on annie duke poker lessons should be grounds for disqualification

Now the donald is siding with joan that annie's friends are possibly "mafia"....is there still a  mafia?

joan wins the best celebrity portion of the contest but no one points out that she obviously knows more celebrities (on the other hand how does annie not get don cheadle etc? I mean beth shak was on my tv for f's sake) Combined the most famous "celebrity" they got to attend was Kathy Griffin thats just sad

I always love the idea that only poker players read people, as if no one in business (or whatever) ever tries to figure out someone's motives. I guess i should be happy that they perpetuate one positive poker stereotype

pop quiz: I regularly saw one of the cast members at my former apartment complex, guess which one

only the donald +Joan Rivers could make me actively root for annie duke....but I'd set the line at about joan -1000 going into the last 4 minutes

Joan on annie after being asked if she did well "i'd like to take her to a sale at Gucci....she'd just go through it" huh?

Annie is consistently using too much logic and calm words, they need phil hellmuth (or mike matusow) to match joan rivers in saying things that are so insane you can't even make a rational response to it. On the bright side I think this might open up a phil hellmuth dancing with the stars appearance

WOW,  watch the last few seconds on hulu, VERY well played by the donald (might need to freeze frame to see the genius of it)
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Puzzling choices by ESPN for WSOP [Apr. 24th, 2009|01:46 pm]
ESPN has announced they will be televising only 4 tournaments at this years WSOP, 1) the 40k NL, 2) something called the WSOP Champions Invitational (I believe this is just the main event champs), 3) the Ante Up for Africa charity event and 4) the main event.  ([info]corey_m  i believe should tell Grant Hinkle that he is personally resonsible for the death of the prelim on tv)

2+2 link, i can't find the original source on this

The 40k event is an obvious choice as it will likely feature several to all known or up and coming players.

The Champions Invitational I read they are playing for a car which is nice but hard to believe anyone is going to be taking that one too seriously.  They also open themselves up to dealing with Russ Hamilton's situation (by either his presence or absence)

Ante Up for Africa is supposed to be a fun tournament but features little real poker, i guess they are hoping to see celebs at the final table? Having it on tv is sure good for the charity though

Day 1s of the main event will now be featured for 8 episodes over 4 weeks, thats a full month of just seeing peter estgate,  ray romano and jason alexander each at a table with 9 other random people.  the main event will have new episodes on 13 weeks this year.  It has always been the most important event of the year but its now just about the only one that matters at all from a tv point of view

I don't think this will have any immediate impact on the field sizes for the other events (other than the 50k horse which could be in trouble) but it has to over time.  The key is remaining the focus of world wide players which so far is not in danger but its wide open for competition.



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So Cal Real Estate tidbits [Apr. 2nd, 2009|12:12 pm]
Myth: No one can get a loan
Fact: i've gotten us qualified at multiple places based in large part on tournament poker income, granted i haven't finalized anything but my tax returns are solid so they have told me it won't be a problem

Myth: no one can afford 20% down
Fact: ok that may be true but FHA loans (3.5% down) are prevalent and almost no one requires 20% down anyways (mortgage insurance is a profit center after all)

Myth: No new houses are being built
Fact: Houses are still being built, and sold.  There are examples where the irvine company (private company) is holding off on new projects but the public builders have not stopped (though they have slowed).  New apartment complexes are not rare either.

Fact: New home builders are running the usual games to inflate the sold price metric.  A friend of ours bought recently for 0 closing cost  0 points financed through the builders lending arm and got 2.5% the 1st year, 3.5% 2nd year and 4.5% the next 28 years.  That is about 20k worth of incentives that won't show in the sales data

Half-truth: Everything is a shortsale or foreclosure.
Its really about 50/50.  Banks are dumb (IMO) because they won't spend anything to make the house look nice

Thing I didn't know: Realtors who have to move a short sale will often list it well under what the bank will accept.

Observation: Of the 5 stages of grief, Realtors appear mostly in step 4 Depression, though some are still in step 3 Bargaining and others have advanced to step 5 acceptance.  In prior look-arounds Step 1: Denial and  Step ?: Haughty were the most common so they have made good progress

Theory: Based on actual sales data a reasonable metric is to take the "zillow peak" for a property and multiply that by .6 and you get a pretty accurate price.  I have no idea how this relates to the actual sales price peak time period but i would guess actual sales were never quite that high.

Theory: If you randomly go to an open house and it turns out the house is owned by a realtor you know....it may not be time to buy yet.




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